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Russian military intel update: War in Iraq 21.03.2003 [10:11]

Moscow - In the course of yesterday’s US military command meeting on Iraq the primary topic of discussion was the unexpected tactics adopted by the Iraqi forces. The coalition aircraft over Iraq encountered a huge number of various kinds of target mockups and other decoys on the ground. Thus, for example, after the post-strike aerial reconnaissance mission of an Iraqi airbase near Basra it was determined that all of the 20 Iraqi aircraft reported earlier by the coalition pilots as being destroyed in the bombing turned out to be aircraft mockups. Additionally, nearly all Iraqi radars discovered earlier have ceased transmission and relocated to new positions. As the result, every third coalition aircraft designated for the role of suppressing Iraqi air defenses returned to base with its full combat load unused. The pilots report that there is no way to know if the weapons released against the Iraqi air defenses hit the real targets or just more decoys. “…We engaged everything that looked like a radar. But there is no way in hell we can know what it really was!” – reported one of the coalition pilots back to ground control after releasing missiles against a suspected Iraqi radar site.

A particular point of concern for the coalition air force commander is the fact that after the first 24 hours of the bombing campaign by the coalition aircraft Iraq is yet to launch a single air-to-surface missile. Coalition aerial, electronic and satellite reconnaissance forces are being urged to determine the locations and composition of the Iraqi air defenses in the next 16 hours.

The sources insist that the elements of the 3rd infantry division were purposefully provoked into fighting by the Iraqi mobile units, which from the first hours of the ground campaign used the “pinprick” tactics by launching more than 20 artillery attacks against the positions of the coalition forces. To prevent further such attacks the coalition command ordered its troops to pursue all attacking Iraqi units.

The GRU GSh RF radio intercept units reported that during one of such pursuits the Americans lost one of their helicopters. Following the loss of this helicopter Russian reconnaissance detected the take-off of a US search-and-rescue helicopter. This was at least a third helicopter lost by the coalition during the first 24 hours of fighting. As the result of the hit-and-run tactics employed by the Iraqis almost the entire 3rd infantry division was pulled inside Iraq and spent the day by conducting reconnaissance missions and exchanging fire with the Iraqis 20-60 kilometers from the Kuwaiti border. To protect the flanks of the division the US command was forced to begin the operation to encircle Basra an by 1900hrs the coalition ground forces (possibly the US Army III Corps which includes the 4th Infantry Div. Mech. and the 1st Cavalry Div., aided by the 1st Marine Div. (1) begun advancing with one part of their forces encircling Basra from the west, while the part moved in the direction of Baghdad. This maneuver was predicted by the Russian intelligence even before the war started.

By sunrise the 1st armored division was forced to stop their advance after encountering a minefield. According to the intercepted radio communications, mines destroyed some two US armored vehicles.

Additionally, at 0730hrs forward Marine units walked into an ambush and called in air support and medevac helicopters. Based on the intercepted radio communications Russian military intelligence believes that the Marines have encountered one the Iraqi mobile units. Currently this area is being bombarded by the US aviation.

The US command is disappointed with its psychological campaign designed to damage the morale of the Iraqi troops. So far there were no mass surrendering of Iraqi troops. During the first day of the war only a few dozen Iraqi soldiers have surrendered. These soldiers came mainly from the border checkpoints and border patrol units. Reports by the majority of the US field commanders show that they do not see any confusion or any loss of control on the part of the Iraqi forces.

So far the weak bombing attacks against Baghdad and other large Iraqi cities, analysts believe, are due to the continuing hopes by the US command that the planned coup against Saddam Hussein would finally materialize. The bombing campaign is being restricted to avoid heavy civilian casualties and provide the coup organizers with more favorable conditions in the cities. However, a step-up in the intensity of the bombing campaign against the Iraqi cities should be expected by the end of the day today, as the hope for a coup against the Iraqi president fades.

At lest two of the eight supposedly Iraqi missiles that hit Kuwait turned out to be US sea-launched cruise missiles that strayed off course. This can be clearly seen even from the craters left in the ground by the explosions of these missiles. After detonation the “Scud” warhead leaves a crater as much as 8 meters deep. What was observed in Kuwait, however, is the typical crater left by the detonation of a cruise missile’s warhead. The story with the rest of the Iraqi missile launches is also unclear. Experts are leaning toward a possibility that the explosions in the Kuwaiti border regions were caused not by missiles but by 120-mm mortar shells fired by the Iraqi mobile units.

The British troops failed to quickly capture the Fao peninsula. Once they landed on the peninsula they were hit with a heavy artillery barrage and held down near the shoreline. Only after the requested aviation support has arrived the British were able to advance 3-5 kilometers inland. During this operation, according to the intercepted radio communications, the British have suffered some casualties and called for medevac helicopters. Russian intelligence reports that the peninsula is being defended by up to two Iraqi regiments and by the armed civilians from the local population supported by several artillery battalions. Currently the British and the US forces are attempting to prevent the defending Iraqi forces at Fao peninsula from retreating toward Basra.

The coalition casualties during the first day of war numbered 23, as war reported to the US Secretary of Defense by the coalition commander Gen. Franks. However, during the next 12 hours the casualties are likely to grow to 40 killed and over a hundred wounded. At the moment the exact coalition casualty figures are difficult to determine due to the continuing evacuation of wounded from the Fao peninsula, the Basra region, and from the battlefield 70 km from the Kuwaiti border.

The first day of ground combat confirms the conclusion that the Iraqi command is organizing defenses in the central regions of the country. All main Iraqi forces have been pulled toward central Iraq leaving huge mine fields and many ambushes on the path of the advancing US forces.

The defense of Basra is carried out by the part of the Iraqi 4th Army Corp. and volunteer brigades formed by the resident of Basra. It is believed that the Iraqi command is not counting on preventing the US forces from taking Basra but is simply trying to inflict as many casualties on the coalition forces as possible.

The main battles of this war may begin as early as by the end of tomorrow, when the US forces reach central Iraq.

Footnotes:

The 4th Infantry Div. Mech. and the 1st Cavalry Div. are reported to be still located at their home base at Fort Hood, TX, so their participation in this operation seems to be out of the question. Their equipment was shipped to Turkey but could not be unloaded due to Turkey's refusal to accept US troops. This equipment is still at sea now for the sixth week and both divisions are in TX. The 4th Infantry Division was to take part in the Northern Front against Iraq coming from Turkey. It was also reported that the 1st Cavalry Div. will be deployed to Iraq but only sometime in May.


Ramzaj

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