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Russian military intel update: War in Iraq 19.03.2003 [21:44]

Based on the intercepted US military communications the Russian military intelligence believes that the US command is attempting to create a false impression of a pending massive ground attack on Basra.

Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) believes that all the talk about the attack on Basra is nothing more than disinformation designed compliment a diversionary strike to pin down large Iraqi forces around this city.

The main thrust of the US ground attack, Russian military thinks, will bypass Basra from the west splitting the Iraqi defenses through An Nasiriya (population under 500,000) and Al' Amarah (population under 500,000) at the end reaching the Hor-Es-Savakiya lake and forming an external encirclement facing Basra.

From An Nasiriya the invaders will advance along the Euphrates river reaching the Habbaniyah lake and capturing the city of Al Habbaniyah (population under 20,000), thus creating a solid front facing Baghdad from the south and partially reaching around Baghdad from southwest.

The encircled Basra forces will be contained using mass air strikes and ground troops to cut off the Iraqis in Basra from their main forces. The US command believes that the air bombardment will weaken and disorganize the Basra defenders and allow the US ground troops to further split these Iraqi forces into smaller pockets of resistance.

During these operations the US command plans to rely to a large extent on tactical airborne units dropped immediately behind the forward lines of Iraqi defenses to disorganize and to demoralize them, as well as to capture pockets of territory and hold them until the arrival of the main forces. A particularly important role in these operations will be played by combat aviation as the primary means of supporting ground troops and containing the enemy.

Already around 30 diversionary and reconnaissance units have been airdropped in Iraq by the US and Britain. Their primary task of these forces is provide targeting information for the upcoming initial waves of air strikes. Available information suggests that the first air strike may take place as early as Thursday morning 1.5-2 hours before the end of Washington's ultimatum. However, the sand storm currently raging over Iraq may force the US command to delay the planned attack by one or two days.

Ramzaj

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